MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Mar 30 | WSH at PHI Nationals at Phillies | WSH 45.1% | PHI 2–WSH 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Mar 30 | TEX at BAL Rangers at Orioles | TEX 45.1% | BAL 2–TEX 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Mar 29 | WSH at CHC Nationals at Cubs | WSH 45.1% | CHC 3–WSH 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Mar 29 | TB at STL Rays at Cardinals | TB 45.1% | STL 7–TB 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Mar 29 | PIT at NYM Pirates at Mets | PIT 45.1% | NYM 3–PIT 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Mar 29 | TEX at PHI Rangers at Phillies | TEX 45.1% | PHI 3–TEX 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Mar 29 | KC at ATL Royals at Braves | KC 45.1% | ATL 1–KC 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Mar 28 | CLE at SEA Guardians at Mariners | CLE 45.1% | SEA 5–CLE 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Mar 28 | NYY at SF Yankees at Giants | NYY 45.1% | SF 1–NYY 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Mar 28 | MIN at BAL Twins at Orioles | MIN 45.1% | BAL 1–MIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Mar 28 | TEX at PHI Rangers at Phillies | TEX 45.1% | PHI 4–TEX 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Mar 27 | DET at SD Tigers at Padres | DET 45.1% | SD 2–DET 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Mar 27 | LAA at HOU Angels at Astros | LAA 45.1% | HOU 2–LAA 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Mar 27 | NYY at SF Yankees at Giants | NYY 45.1% | SF 0–NYY 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 18 | DET at LAA Tigers at Angels | DET 45.2% | LAA 0–DET 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 17 | DET at LAA Tigers at Angels | DET 45.2% | LAA 1–DET 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 24 | DET at BAL Tigers at Orioles | DET 45.2% | BAL 1–DET 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 23 | ARI at STL Diamondbacks at Cardinals | ARI 45.2% | STL 6–ARI 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 19 | PIT at CLE Pirates at Guardians | PIT 45.2% | CLE 1–PIT 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | ARI at STL Diamondbacks at Cardinals | ARI 45.2% | STL 4–ARI 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | ARI at STL Diamondbacks at Cardinals | ARI 45.2% | STL 3–ARI 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | TEX at COL Rangers at Rockies | TEX 45.2% | COL 4–TEX 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 19 | TEX at COL Rangers at Rockies | TEX 45.2% | COL 0–TEX 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 6 | SEA at DET Mariners at Tigers | SEA 45.2% | DET 0–SEA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 16 | LAA at ARI Angels at Diamondbacks | LAA 45.2% | ARI 0–LAA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 9 | SEA at BAL Mariners at Orioles | SEA 45.2% | BAL 5–SEA 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 8 | SEA at BAL Mariners at Orioles | SEA 45.2% | BAL 3–SEA 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 27 | COL at MIN Rockies at Twins | COL 45.2% | MIN 5–COL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Aug 5 | TB at COL Rays at Rockies | TB 45.3% | COL 0–TB 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Aug 4 | TB at COL Rays at Rockies | TB 45.3% | COL 7–TB 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Aug 3 | TB at COL Rays at Rockies | TB 45.3% | COL 9–TB 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | CHC at CIN Cubs at Reds | CHC 45.3% | CIN 4–CHC 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | CHC at CIN Cubs at Reds | CHC 45.3% | CIN 3–CHC 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | PHI at DET Phillies at Tigers | PHI 45.3% | DET 0–PHI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | PHI at DET Phillies at Tigers | PHI 45.3% | DET 2–PHI 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 30 | ATL at CIN Braves at Reds | ATL 45.3% | CIN 2–ATL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 29 | ATL at CIN Braves at Reds | ATL 45.3% | CIN 3–ATL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | PHI at BAL Phillies at Orioles | PHI 45.3% | BAL 0–PHI 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Aug 1 | PHI at BAL Phillies at Orioles | PHI 45.3% | BAL 0–PHI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 22 | TEX at MIA Rangers at Marlins | TEX 45.3% | MIA 3–TEX 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Sep 24 | NYM at TEX Mets at Rangers | TEX 45.3% | TEX 3–NYM 1 | Injuries Mets healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Rangers (9 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Fri, Jul 17 | MIN at CHC Twins at Cubs | MIN 45.4% | CHC 2–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 22 | BAL at BOS Orioles at Red Sox | BAL 45.4% | BOS 1–BAL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 1 | MIN at HOU Twins at Astros | MIN 45.4% | HOU 3–MIN 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 29 | MIN at HOU Twins at Astros | MIN 45.4% | HOU 4–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 6 | CLE at TEX Guardians at Rangers | CLE 45.4% | TEX 0–CLE 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 4 | BAL at BOS Orioles at Red Sox | BAL 45.4% | BOS 2–BAL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 2 | BAL at BOS Orioles at Red Sox | BAL 45.4% | BOS 2–BAL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 26 | KC at DET Royals at Tigers | KC 45.4% | DET 4–KC 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 25 | KC at DET Royals at Tigers | KC 45.4% | DET 2–KC 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 601–650 of 860 surprises