MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Jul 5 | MIA at OAK Marlins at Athletics | MIA 45.4% | OAK 8–MIA 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | MIA at OAK Marlins at Athletics | MIA 45.4% | OAK 2–MIA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 29 | WSH at BOS Nationals at Red Sox | BOS 45.4% | BOS 6–WSH 3 | Rest Days Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Red Sox (back-to-back) |
| Wed, May 20 | CIN at PHI Reds at Phillies | CIN 45.4% | PHI 4–CIN 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 19 | CIN at PHI Reds at Phillies | CIN 45.4% | PHI 1–CIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | PIT at COL Pirates at Rockies | PIT 45.4% | COL 6–PIT 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 16 | COL at CHC Rockies at Cubs | COL 45.5% | CHC 2–COL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 5 | TB at MIA Rays at Marlins | TB 45.5% | MIA 0–TB 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 18 | TEX at ATL Rangers at Braves | TEX 45.5% | ATL 6–TEX 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 9 | CLE at MIN Guardians at Twins | CLE 45.5% | MIN 2–CLE 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 13 | HOU at KC Astros at Royals | HOU 45.5% | KC 7–HOU 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 12 | HOU at KC Astros at Royals | HOU 45.5% | KC 8–HOU 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | KC at STL Royals at Cardinals | KC 45.5% | STL 0–KC 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | TEX at HOU Rangers at Astros | TEX 45.5% | HOU 0–TEX 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Aug 7 | CHC at KC Cubs at Royals | CHC 45.5% | KC 4–CHC 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 22 | CIN at SEA Reds at Mariners | CIN 45.5% | SEA 3–CIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 21 | CIN at SEA Reds at Mariners | CIN 45.5% | SEA 2–CIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 14 | COL at OAK Rockies at Athletics | COL 45.5% | OAK 9–COL 23 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | CLE at MIA Guardians at Marlins | CLE 45.6% | MIA 2–CLE 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | CLE at MIA Guardians at Marlins | CLE 45.6% | MIA 1–CLE 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 10 | CLE at MIA Guardians at Marlins | CLE 45.6% | MIA 2–CLE 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 8 | TOR at SF Blue Jays at Giants | TOR 45.6% | SF 0–TOR 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 7 | TOR at SF Blue Jays at Giants | TOR 45.6% | SF 3–TOR 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Sep 24 | TB at NYY Rays at Yankees | NYY 45.6% | NYY 6–TB 4 | Injuries Rays healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Yankees (7 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Fri, Sep 25 | TEX at MIN Rangers at Twins | MIN 45.6% | MIN 10–TEX 2 | Injuries Rangers healthier (9 out, 0 doubtful) vs Twins (9 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Mon, Aug 3 | SF at TEX Giants at Rangers | SF 45.6% | TEX 1–SF 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Apr 4 | MIL at KC Brewers at Royals | MIL 45.6% | KC 2–MIL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | SF at COL Giants at Rockies | SF 45.7% | COL 4–SF 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 31 | SF at COL Giants at Rockies | SF 45.7% | COL 6–SF 19 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 21 | OAK at LAA Athletics at Angels | OAK 45.7% | LAA 2–OAK 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | OAK at LAA Athletics at Angels | OAK 45.7% | LAA 5–OAK 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 19 | OAK at LAA Athletics at Angels | OAK 45.7% | LAA 6–OAK 14 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 26 | CIN at STL Reds at Cardinals | CIN 45.7% | STL 3–CIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Aug 6 | MIN at KC Twins at Royals | MIN 45.7% | KC 3–MIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 20 | OAK at ARI Athletics at Diamondbacks | OAK 45.7% | ARI 2–OAK 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 20 | CLE at HOU Guardians at Astros | CLE 45.7% | HOU 1–CLE 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 28 | HOU at DET Astros at Tigers | HOU 45.7% | DET 5–HOU 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 27 | HOU at DET Astros at Tigers | HOU 45.7% | DET 6–HOU 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 17 | MIA at PHI Marlins at Phillies | MIA 45.7% | PHI 4–MIA 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 29 | HOU at LAA Astros at Angels | HOU 45.7% | LAA 4–HOU 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 28 | HOU at LAA Astros at Angels | HOU 45.7% | LAA 2–HOU 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 27 | HOU at LAA Astros at Angels | HOU 45.7% | LAA 4–HOU 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 3 | MIL at ARI Brewers at Diamondbacks | MIL 45.7% | ARI 4–MIL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 8 | HOU at LAA Astros at Angels | HOU 45.7% | LAA 4–HOU 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 4 | PIT at HOU Pirates at Astros | PIT 45.7% | HOU 1–PIT 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 2 | PIT at HOU Pirates at Astros | PIT 45.7% | HOU 6–PIT 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 8 | CHC at BAL Cubs at Orioles | CHC 45.8% | BAL 7–CHC 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 7 | CHC at BAL Cubs at Orioles | CHC 45.8% | BAL 2–CHC 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 26 | ATL at BAL Braves at Orioles | ATL 45.8% | BAL 2–ATL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | ATL at BAL Braves at Orioles | ATL 45.8% | BAL 6–ATL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 651–700 of 860 surprises