MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jun 17 | PIT at OAK Pirates at Athletics | PIT 45.8% | OAK 4–PIT 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 16 | PIT at OAK Pirates at Athletics | PIT 45.8% | OAK 5–PIT 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 11 | TEX at KC Rangers at Royals | TEX 45.8% | KC 2–TEX 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 10 | TEX at KC Rangers at Royals | TEX 45.8% | KC 4–TEX 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 30 | CHC at STL Cubs at Cardinals | CHC 45.8% | STL 2–CHC 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 28 | CHC at STL Cubs at Cardinals | CHC 45.8% | STL 2–CHC 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 27 | CHC at STL Cubs at Cardinals | CHC 45.8% | STL 3–CHC 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 30 | CHC at STL Cubs at Cardinals | CHC 45.8% | STL 1–CHC 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 29 | CLE at CIN Guardians at Reds | CLE 45.9% | CIN 1–CLE 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | ATL at STL Braves at Cardinals | ATL 45.9% | STL 3–ATL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Aug 1 | PIT at CIN Pirates at Reds | PIT 45.9% | CIN 1–PIT 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 31 | MIN at SEA Twins at Mariners | MIN 45.9% | SEA 3–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 2 | TB at KC Rays at Royals | TB 46.0% | KC 2–TB 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 1 | TB at KC Rays at Royals | TB 46.0% | KC 0–TB 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | TB at KC Rays at Royals | TB 46.0% | KC 4–TB 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 10 | MIN at DET Twins at Tigers | MIN 46.0% | DET 4–MIN 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 17 | SF at ATL Giants at Braves | SF 46.0% | ATL 5–SF 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 16 | SF at ATL Giants at Braves | SF 46.0% | ATL 2–SF 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 7 | SF at CHC Giants at Cubs | SF 46.0% | CHC 1–SF 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 28 | MIL at SF Brewers at Giants | MIL 46.0% | SF 2–MIL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 27 | MIA at STL Marlins at Cardinals | MIA 46.0% | STL 1–MIA 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 26 | MIA at STL Marlins at Cardinals | MIA 46.0% | STL 0–MIA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 28 | ATL at BOS Braves at Red Sox | ATL 46.0% | BOS 2–ATL 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 26 | ATL at BOS Braves at Red Sox | ATL 46.0% | BOS 6–ATL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | MIN at ARI Twins at Diamondbacks | MIN 46.0% | ARI 2–MIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 20 | MIN at ARI Twins at Diamondbacks | MIN 46.0% | ARI 8–MIN 16 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 26 | ATL at SF Braves at Giants | ATL 46.1% | SF 1–ATL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 2 | COL at LAA Rockies at Angels | COL 46.1% | LAA 2–COL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 1 | COL at LAA Rockies at Angels | COL 46.1% | LAA 8–COL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | SF at OAK Giants at Athletics | SF 46.1% | OAK 1–SF 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 16 | SF at OAK Giants at Athletics | SF 46.1% | OAK 4–SF 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 22 | COL at ARI Rockies at Diamondbacks | COL 46.1% | ARI 2–COL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 24 | CLE at PHI Guardians at Phillies | CLE 46.1% | PHI 1–CLE 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Aug 7 | TB at SEA Rays at Mariners | TB 46.1% | SEA 1–TB 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 2 | PIT at PHI Pirates at Phillies | PIT 46.2% | PHI 1–PIT 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 29 | PIT at PHI Pirates at Phillies | PIT 46.2% | PHI 7–PIT 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 2 | TEX at STL Rangers at Cardinals | TEX 46.2% | STL 4–TEX 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 1 | TEX at STL Rangers at Cardinals | TEX 46.2% | STL 1–TEX 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 24 | MIN at BOS Twins at Red Sox | MIN 46.2% | BOS 5–MIN 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 23 | MIN at BOS Twins at Red Sox | MIN 46.2% | BOS 2–MIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 14 | TB at LAA Rays at Angels | TB 46.2% | LAA 3–TB 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 30 | WSH at ATL Nationals at Braves | ATL 46.2% | ATL 5–WSH 4 | Rest Days Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Braves (back-to-back) |
| Thu, May 21 | CLE at DET Guardians at Tigers | CLE 46.3% | DET 1–CLE 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | CLE at DET Guardians at Tigers | CLE 46.3% | DET 2–CLE 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 19 | CLE at DET Guardians at Tigers | CLE 46.3% | DET 3–CLE 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 18 | CLE at DET Guardians at Tigers | CLE 46.3% | DET 2–CLE 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 15 | DET at HOU Tigers at Astros | DET 46.3% | HOU 3–DET 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 14 | TEX at BOS Rangers at Red Sox | TEX 46.3% | BOS 4–TEX 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 10 | TOR at SD Blue Jays at Padres | TOR 46.4% | SD 3–TOR 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Sep 25 | PIT at DET Pirates at Tigers | DET 46.4% | DET 8–PIT 7 | Injuries Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (14 out, 0 doubtful) |
Showing 701–750 of 860 surprises