Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Padres:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SD 50% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: SD 56% (+2)
Win probability movement
SD home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blue Jays defeated the Padres 5-3.
Our model predicted the Padres would win with 54% confidence, but the Blue Jays pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Padres and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Blue Jays and was a contributing factor: Blue Jays rest advantage (2 days rest) over Padres (1 day rest)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Padres (0 out) vs Blue Jays (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blue Jays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Diego Padres
- Rest DaysFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blue Jays
Padres
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Padres has a 54% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Petco Park in San Diego, California.