MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 31 | DET at OAK Tigers at Athletics | DET 46.4% | OAK 1–DET 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 4 | TOR at ATL Blue Jays at Braves | TOR 46.4% | ATL 2–TOR 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 20 | TOR at CHC Blue Jays at Cubs | TOR 46.4% | CHC 6–TOR 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Aug 5 | TOR at HOU Blue Jays at Astros | TOR 46.4% | HOU 4–TOR 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Aug 3 | TOR at HOU Blue Jays at Astros | TOR 46.4% | HOU 1–TOR 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 3 | BAL at CIN Orioles at Reds | BAL 46.4% | CIN 0–BAL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 21 | PIT at STL Pirates at Cardinals | PIT 46.4% | STL 2–PIT 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | PIT at STL Pirates at Cardinals | PIT 46.4% | STL 0–PIT 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Sep 23 | MIL at PHI Brewers at Phillies | MIL 46.5% | PHI 1–MIL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 7 | MIL at COL Brewers at Rockies | MIL 46.5% | COL 4–MIL 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 6 | MIL at COL Brewers at Rockies | MIL 46.5% | COL 1–MIL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 5 | MIL at COL Brewers at Rockies | MIL 46.5% | COL 7–MIL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 17 | SF at SEA Giants at Mariners | SF 46.5% | SEA 0–SF 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | OAK at MIN Athletics at Twins | OAK 46.6% | MIN 0–OAK 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 16 | MIL at MIN Brewers at Twins | MIL 46.6% | MIN 1–MIL 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 20 | SD at TEX Padres at Rangers | SD 46.6% | TEX 4–SD 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 1 | SF at ARI Giants at Diamondbacks | SF 46.6% | ARI 4–SF 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 26 | SD at MIA Padres at Marlins | SD 46.8% | MIA 3–SD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 25 | SD at MIA Padres at Marlins | SD 46.8% | MIA 2–SD 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | SD at MIA Padres at Marlins | SD 46.8% | MIA 2–SD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | MIL at ATL Brewers at Braves | MIL 46.8% | ATL 4–MIL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | MIL at CHC Brewers at Cubs | MIL 46.8% | CHC 0–MIL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 19 | MIL at CHC Brewers at Cubs | MIL 46.8% | CHC 2–MIL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 18 | MIL at CHC Brewers at Cubs | MIL 46.8% | CHC 3–MIL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 9 | WSH at SF Nationals at Giants | WSH 46.8% | SF 3–WSH 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 8 | WSH at SF Nationals at Giants | WSH 46.8% | SF 3–WSH 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 31 | MIL at HOU Brewers at Astros | MIL 46.8% | HOU 0–MIL 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 22 | HOU at CHC Astros at Cubs | HOU 46.9% | CHC 2–HOU 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 5 | NYM at SD Mets at Padres | NYM 46.9% | SD 0–NYM 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 22 | TB at NYY Rays at Yankees | TB 46.9% | NYY 2–TB 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 8 | MIL at OAK Brewers at Athletics | MIL 46.9% | OAK 14–MIL 15 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 21 | SD at ATL Padres at Braves | SD 46.9% | ATL 3–SD 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | MIL at CIN Brewers at Reds | MIL 47.0% | CIN 5–MIL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | MIL at CIN Brewers at Reds | MIL 47.0% | CIN 0–MIL 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 22 | MIL at CIN Brewers at Reds | MIL 47.0% | CIN 1–MIL 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | TOR at DET Blue Jays at Tigers | TOR 47.0% | DET 1–TOR 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 16 | TOR at DET Blue Jays at Tigers | TOR 47.0% | DET 1–TOR 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 29 | TOR at BAL Blue Jays at Orioles | TOR 47.0% | BAL 5–TOR 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 28 | TOR at BAL Blue Jays at Orioles | TOR 47.0% | BAL 1–TOR 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 26 | WSH at CLE Nationals at Guardians | WSH 47.1% | CLE 3–WSH 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 25 | WSH at CLE Nationals at Guardians | WSH 47.1% | CLE 2–WSH 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 15 | ARI at COL Diamondbacks at Rockies | ARI 47.1% | COL 1–ARI 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 15 | NYY at NYM Yankees at Mets | NYY 47.1% | NYM 2–NYY 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 8 | HOU at CIN Astros at Reds | HOU 47.1% | CIN 0–HOU 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 1 | CLE at OAK Guardians at Athletics | CLE 47.1% | OAK 5–CLE 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 1 | TEX at DET Rangers at Tigers | TEX 47.1% | DET 4–TEX 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 24 | MIA at SF Marlins at Giants | MIA 47.1% | SF 4–MIA 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 24 | OAK at TEX Athletics at Rangers | OAK 47.1% | TEX 1–OAK 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 21 | SD at COL Padres at Rockies | SD 47.1% | COL 0–SD 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Apr 21 | NYY at BOS Yankees at Red Sox | NYY 47.1% | BOS 0–NYY 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 751–800 of 860 surprises