Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Reds:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CIN 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CIN 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
CIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Astros defeated the Reds 10-0.
Our model predicted the Reds would win with 53% confidence, but the Astros won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Reds and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Astros and was a contributing factor: Astros rest advantage (2 days rest) over Reds (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Astros won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cincinnati Reds
- Rest DaysFavors Houston Astros
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Astros
Reds
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Reds has a 53% win probability, while Astros has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.