MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Apr 21 | MIL at DET Brewers at Tigers | MIL 47.1% | DET 4–MIL 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 17 | STL at HOU Cardinals at Astros | STL 47.1% | HOU 4–STL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 10 | LAA at CIN Angels at Reds | LAA 47.1% | CIN 2–LAA 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Apr 10 | PIT at CHC Pirates at Cubs | PIT 47.1% | CHC 0–PIT 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Mar 26 | BOS at CIN Red Sox at Reds | BOS 47.1% | CIN 0–BOS 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 20 | WSH at TB Nationals at Rays | WSH 47.2% | TB 3–WSH 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 25 | TOR at BOS Blue Jays at Red Sox | TOR 47.3% | BOS 0–TOR 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 18 | TOR at BOS Blue Jays at Red Sox | TOR 47.3% | BOS 3–TOR 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 17 | TOR at BOS Blue Jays at Red Sox | TOR 47.3% | BOS 0–TOR 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 19 | SD at KC Padres at Royals | SD 47.3% | KC 2–SD 19 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | CHC at NYM Cubs at Mets | CHC 47.3% | NYM 6–CHC 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 22 | WSH at COL Nationals at Rockies | WSH 47.3% | COL 0–WSH 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 20 | WSH at COL Nationals at Rockies | WSH 47.3% | COL 3–WSH 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Aug 1 | MIL at LAA Brewers at Angels | MIL 47.4% | LAA 1–MIL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 31 | MIL at LAA Brewers at Angels | MIL 47.4% | LAA 2–MIL 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | CIN at STL Reds at Cardinals | CIN 47.4% | STL 2–CIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | MIL at ARI Brewers at Diamondbacks | MIL 47.5% | ARI 2–MIL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | SD at SEA Padres at Mariners | SD 47.5% | SEA 3–SD 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 16 | SD at SEA Padres at Mariners | SD 47.5% | SEA 4–SD 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 9 | MIL at STL Brewers at Cardinals | MIL 47.5% | STL 4–MIL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 7 | MIL at STL Brewers at Cardinals | MIL 47.5% | STL 2–MIL 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 7 | MIL at STL Brewers at Cardinals | MIL 47.5% | STL 3–MIL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 6 | MIL at STL Brewers at Cardinals | MIL 47.5% | STL 3–MIL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 14 | SD at BAL Padres at Orioles | SD 47.5% | BAL 2–SD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 13 | SD at BAL Padres at Orioles | SD 47.5% | BAL 3–SD 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 28 | CLE at CIN Guardians at Reds | CLE 47.6% | CIN 5–CLE 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Aug 6 | SD at ARI Padres at Diamondbacks | SD 47.6% | ARI 1–SD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Aug 4 | SD at ARI Padres at Diamondbacks | SD 47.6% | ARI 4–SD 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Mar 26 | WSH at CHC Nationals at Cubs | WSH 47.6% | CHC 4–WSH 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 17 | SD at STL Padres at Cardinals | SD 47.6% | STL 1–SD 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 24 | WSH at ATL Nationals at Braves | WSH 47.6% | ATL 1–WSH 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 23 | WSH at ATL Nationals at Braves | WSH 47.6% | ATL 0–WSH 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 25 | TB at BAL Rays at Orioles | BAL 47.7% | BAL 9–TB 7 | Rest Days Rays rest advantage (1 day rest) over Orioles (back-to-back) |
| Fri, Aug 7 | TOR at PHI Blue Jays at Phillies | TOR 47.7% | PHI 4–TOR 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 19 | WSH at OAK Nationals at Athletics | WSH 47.8% | OAK 2–WSH 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 17 | WSH at OAK Nationals at Athletics | WSH 47.8% | OAK 4–WSH 23 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 22 | MIN at BOS Twins at Red Sox | MIN 47.9% | BOS 6–MIN 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Aug 5 | WSH at PHI Nationals at Phillies | WSH 48.1% | PHI 4–WSH 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Sep 27 | LAA at SEA Angels at Mariners | SEA 48.1% | SEA 7–LAA 3 | Injuries Angels healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mariners (12 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Sun, Sep 27 | ATL at MIA Braves at Marlins | MIA 48.2% | MIA 5–ATL 3 | Defensive Efficiency Braves pitching/defense (3.9 RA/G) better than Marlins (4.4 RA/G) |
| Sun, Jun 28 | WSH at BAL Nationals at Orioles | WSH 48.3% | BAL 4–WSH 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 27 | WSH at BAL Nationals at Orioles | WSH 48.3% | BAL 3–WSH 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 6 | WSH at ARI Nationals at Diamondbacks | WSH 48.3% | ARI 1–WSH 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Sep 26 | TEX at MIN Rangers at Twins | TEX 48.5% | MIN 2–TEX 6 | Offensive Efficiency Twins offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Rangers (4.1 R/G) |
| Wed, Jul 1 | WSH at BOS Nationals at Red Sox | WSH 48.5% | BOS 2–WSH 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | WSH at BOS Nationals at Red Sox | WSH 48.5% | BOS 1–WSH 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 23 | KC at DET Royals at Tigers | DET 48.5% | DET 4–KC 3 | Rest Days Royals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Tigers (back-to-back) |
| Fri, May 29 | MIL at HOU Brewers at Astros | MIL 48.6% | HOU 4–MIL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Sep 26 | CIN at TOR Reds at Blue Jays | CIN 48.6% | TOR 1–CIN 5 | Defensive Efficiency Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G) |
| Wed, Sep 23 | ARI at COL Diamondbacks at Rockies | ARI 48.7% | COL 3–ARI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 801–850 of 860 surprises