San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres head-to-head
Baltimore Orioles 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Orioles:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BAL 52% (0)
Win probability movement
BAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Orioles 9-3.
Our model predicted the Orioles would win with 52% confidence, but the Padres pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Orioles and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Baltimore Orioles
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Orioles
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Baltimore Orioles
San Diego Padres
Other games on Jun 13, 2026
- 56%MIN win probability
- 55%KC win probability
- 54%LAA win probability
- 56%OAK win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Orioles has a 52% win probability, while Padres has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland.