San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres head-to-head
Baltimore Orioles 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Orioles:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BAL 50% (−1)
- If the rest edge were neutral: BAL 56% (+5)
Win probability movement
BAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Orioles defeated the Padres 7-3.
Our model predicted the Orioles would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Orioles and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Padres and was a contributing factor: Padres rest advantage (2 days rest) over Orioles (1 day rest)
- ELO Rating favored the Padres and was a contributing factor: Orioles ELO 1475 vs Padres ELO 1553 (diff: -78)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Orioles won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Baltimore Orioles
- Rest DaysFavors San Diego Padres
- ELO RatingFavors San Diego Padres
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Orioles
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Orioles has a 51% win probability, while Padres has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland.