Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Royals:
- Rest Days. Royals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Tigers (back-to-back)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: KC 44% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: KC 54% (+3)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Tigers defeated the Royals 4-3.
Our model predicted the Royals would win with 51% confidence, but the Tigers pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Royals and was a major factor: Royals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Tigers (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Tigers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Tigers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Kansas City Royals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Tigers
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Royals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Tigers (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Royals
Tigers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Tigers has a 49% win probability, while Royals has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan.