Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cubs:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHC 50% (−2)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CHC 56% (+4)
Win probability movement
CHC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nationals defeated the Cubs 10-4.
Our model predicted the Cubs would win with 52% confidence, but the Nationals won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cubs and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Nationals and was a contributing factor: Nationals rest advantage (3 days rest) over Cubs (1 day rest)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nationals won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Cubs
- Rest DaysFavors Washington Nationals
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Nationals
No player data available
Cubs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cubs has a 52% win probability, while Nationals has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.