Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays head-to-head
Tampa Bay Rays 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rays:
- Rest Days. Rays rest advantage (1 day rest) over Orioles (back-to-back)
- ELO Rating. Orioles ELO 1475 vs Rays ELO 1510 (diff: -34)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: TB 44% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TB 54% (+2)
Win probability movement
BAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Orioles defeated the Rays 9-7.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 52% confidence, but the Orioles won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Rays and was a major factor: Rays rest advantage (1 day rest) over Orioles (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Orioles and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Orioles won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Baltimore Orioles
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Rays rest advantage (1 day rest) over Orioles (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Orioles
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Orioles has a 48% win probability, while Rays has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland.