MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 3 | TOR at SEA Blue Jays at Mariners | TOR 48.7% | SEA 0–TOR 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 20 | PIT at NYY Pirates at Yankees | NYY 48.8% | NYY 8–PIT 5 | Rest Days Pirates rest advantage (1 day rest) over Yankees (back-to-back) |
| Mon, May 25 | MIN at CWS Twins at Chicago White Sox | CWS 48.8% | CWS 3–MIN 1 | Rest Days Twins rest advantage (1 day rest) over Chicago White Sox (back-to-back) |
| Tue, Jun 16 | TOR at BOS Blue Jays at Red Sox | TOR 49.0% | BOS 1–TOR 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Sep 26 | COL at CWS Rockies at Chicago White Sox | COL 49.3% | CWS 6–COL 9 | Home Field Advantage Chicago White Sox are 44-26 at home this season; Rockies are 24-44 on the road |
| Fri, Jun 5 | BAL at TOR Orioles at Blue Jays | BAL 49.4% | TOR 3–BAL 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Sep 25 | LAA at SEA Angels at Mariners | LAA 49.5% | SEA 5–LAA 7 | Home Field Advantage Mariners are 37-34 at home this season; Angels are 29-47 on the road |
| Sat, Sep 26 | LAA at SEA Angels at Mariners | SEA 49.6% | SEA 8–LAA 4 | Injuries Angels healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mariners (12 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Thu, Sep 24 | CLE at BOS Guardians at Red Sox | CLE 49.8% | BOS 0–CLE 1 | Defensive Efficiency Red Sox pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Guardians (4.1 RA/G) |
| Sun, Sep 27 | CIN at TOR Reds at Blue Jays | TOR 50.0% | TOR 5–CIN 1 | Injuries Reds healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Blue Jays (14 out, 0 doubtful) |
Showing 851–860 of 860 surprises