Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays head-to-head
Toronto Blue Jays 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Blue Jays:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Blue Jays ELO 1536 vs Orioles ELO 1475 (diff: +60)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: TOR 56% (+5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 46% (−5)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Orioles defeated the Blue Jays 13-3.
Our model predicted the Blue Jays would win with 51% confidence, but the Orioles pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Orioles and was a major factor: Orioles rest advantage (1 day rest) over Blue Jays (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Blue Jays and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Orioles won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Baltimore Orioles
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Orioles rest advantage (1 day rest) over Blue Jays (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Orioles
Blue Jays
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Blue Jays has a 51% win probability, while Orioles has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario.