Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 51% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Mariners:
- Home Field Advantage. Mariners are 37-34 at home this season; Angels are 29-47 on the road
- Defensive Efficiency. Mariners pitching/defense (4.5 RA/G) better than Angels (4.6 RA/G)
- ELO Rating. Mariners ELO 1462 vs Angels ELO 1417 (diff: +46)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Angels defeated the Mariners 7-5.
Our model predicted the Mariners would win with 51% confidence, but the Angels pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Angels and was a major factor: Angels healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mariners (12 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mariners and was a notable factor: Mariners are 37-34 at home this season; Angels are 29-47 on the road
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Mariners and was a contributing factor: Mariners pitching/defense (4.5 RA/G) better than Angels (4.6 RA/G)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Mariners have 12 player(s) ruled out, while the Angels have 10.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Angels won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Los Angeles Angels
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Mariners
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Seattle Mariners
- ELO RatingFavors Seattle Mariners
- Recent FormFavors Seattle Mariners
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Angels healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mariners (12 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Angels
Mariners
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mariners has a 51% win probability, while Angels has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.