Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
Pittsburgh Pirates 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Pirates:
- Rest Days. Pirates rest advantage (1 day rest) over Yankees (back-to-back)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: PIT 44% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PIT 54% (+3)
Win probability movement
NYY home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Yankees defeated the Pirates 8-5.
Our model predicted the Pirates would win with 51% confidence, but the Yankees pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Pirates and was a major factor: Pirates rest advantage (1 day rest) over Yankees (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Yankees and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Yankees won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Yankees
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Pirates rest advantage (1 day rest) over Yankees (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pirates
Yankees
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Yankees has a 49% win probability, while Pirates has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York.