Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox 50% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Red Sox:
- Defensive Efficiency. Red Sox pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Guardians (4.1 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Red Sox are 36-34 at home this season; Guardians are 35-32 on the road
- Offensive Efficiency. Red Sox offense (4.3 R/G) outpaces Guardians (4.1 R/G)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Guardians defeated the Red Sox 1-0.
Our model predicted the Red Sox would win with 50% confidence, but the Guardians pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Guardians and was a major factor: Guardians healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Red Sox (12 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Red Sox and was a contributing factor: Red Sox pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Guardians (4.1 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Red Sox and was a contributing factor: Red Sox are 36-34 at home this season; Guardians are 35-32 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Red Sox have 12 player(s) ruled out, while the Guardians have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Guardians won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Red Sox
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Red Sox
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Red Sox
- ELO RatingFavors Boston Red Sox
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Guardians healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Red Sox (12 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Guardians
Red Sox
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Red Sox has a 50% win probability, while Guardians has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.