Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cubs:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHC 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CHC 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
CHC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Astros defeated the Cubs 4-2.
Our model predicted the Cubs would win with 53% confidence, but the Astros won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cubs and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Astros and was a contributing factor: Astros rest advantage (2 days rest) over Cubs (1 day rest)
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Cubs ELO 1495 vs Astros ELO 1495 (diff: +0)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Astros won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Cubs
- Rest DaysFavors Houston Astros
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Astros
Cubs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cubs has a 53% win probability, while Astros has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.