Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Reds:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CIN 50% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CIN 56% (+2)
Win probability movement
CIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Orioles defeated the Reds 3-0.
Our model predicted the Reds would win with 54% confidence, but the Orioles pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Reds and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Orioles and was a contributing factor: Orioles rest advantage (2 days rest) over Reds (1 day rest)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Orioles won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cincinnati Reds
- Rest DaysFavors Baltimore Orioles
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Reds
Orioles
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Orioles
Reds
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Reds has a 54% win probability, while Orioles has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio.