San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Rockies:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: COL 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
COL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Rockies 1-0.
Our model predicted the Rockies would win with 53% confidence, but the Padres won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rockies and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Padres and was a contributing factor: Padres rest advantage (2 days rest) over Rockies (1 day rest)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Rockies (0 out) vs Padres (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Rockies
- Rest DaysFavors San Diego Padres
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Rockies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rockies has a 53% win probability, while Padres has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado.