Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Guardians:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 52% (−1)
Win probability movement
CLE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nationals defeated the Guardians 10-2.
Our model predicted the Guardians would win with 53% confidence, but the Nationals won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Guardians and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
- ELO Rating favored the Nationals and was a contributing factor: Guardians ELO 1513 vs Nationals ELO 1576 (diff: -63)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nationals won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Nationals
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Nationals
No player data available
Guardians
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guardians has a 53% win probability, while Nationals has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.