San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Marlins:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIA 52% (−1)
Win probability movement
MIA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Padres defeated the Marlins 4-2.
Our model predicted the Marlins would win with 53% confidence, but the Padres pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Marlins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Padres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Marlins
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors San Diego Padres
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Padres
No player data available
Marlins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Marlins has a 53% win probability, while Padres has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.