Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
New York Yankees 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Yankees:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYY 50% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: NYY 56% (+3)
Win probability movement
NYY home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rays defeated the Yankees 4-2.
Our model predicted the Yankees would win with 53% confidence, but the Rays won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Yankees and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Rays and was a contributing factor: Rays rest advantage (2 days rest) over Yankees (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Yankees
- Rest DaysFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Yankees
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Yankees has a 53% win probability, while Rays has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York.