Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Orioles:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BAL 52% (−1)
Win probability movement
BAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blue Jays defeated the Orioles 6-5.
Our model predicted the Orioles would win with 53% confidence, but the Blue Jays pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Orioles and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Orioles (0 out) vs Blue Jays (0 out)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Orioles (1 day rest) vs Blue Jays (1 day rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blue Jays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Baltimore Orioles
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blue Jays
Orioles
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Orioles has a 53% win probability, while Blue Jays has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland.