Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Royals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: KC 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
KC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rays defeated the Royals 5-2.
Our model predicted the Royals would win with 54% confidence, but the Rays pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Royals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Kansas City Royals
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Royals
Rays
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Royals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Royals has a 54% win probability, while Rays has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.