San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cubs:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHC 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
CHC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Giants defeated the Cubs 2-1.
Our model predicted the Cubs would win with 54% confidence, but the Giants pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cubs and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Cubs (1 day rest) vs Giants (1 day rest)
- ELO Rating favored the Giants and was a contributing factor: Cubs ELO 1495 vs Giants ELO 1522 (diff: -27)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Giants won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Cubs
- Rest DaysNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors San Francisco Giants
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Giants
No player data available
Cubs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cubs has a 54% win probability, while Giants has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.