Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers head-to-head
Detroit Tigers 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Tigers:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Guardians defeated the Tigers 3-2.
Our model predicted the Tigers would win with 54% confidence, but the Guardians won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Tigers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating favored the Guardians and was a contributing factor: Tigers ELO 1476 vs Guardians ELO 1513 (diff: -37)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Guardians won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Tigers
- ELO RatingFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Guardians
Tigers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Detroit Tigers
- Previous game54%DET win probability
- Next game54%DET win probability
Cleveland Guardians
- Previous game54%DET win probability
- Next game54%DET win probability
Other games on May 20, 2026
- 55%COL win probability
- 54%LAA win probability
- 55%SEA win probability
- 55%SD win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Tigers has a 54% win probability, while Guardians has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan.