MLB report card: week of 2026-05-18 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
46.8%
hit rate
0.253
Brier score
44 of 94 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Cardinals at RedsCIN 57.6% pre-game — final CIN 1–STL 8
- Athletics at PadresSD 56.7% pre-game — final SD 2–OAK 5
- Guardians at PhilliesPHI 55.6% pre-game — final PHI 0–CLE 1
- Pirates at Blue JaysTOR 55.5% pre-game — final TOR 1–PIT 4
- Red Sox at RoyalsKC 55.3% pre-game — final KC 3–BOS 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Athletics at PadresSD 58.5% pre-game — final SD 7–OAK 3
- Athletics at PadresSD 56.7% pre-game — final SD 2–OAK 0
- Dodgers at BrewersMIL 56.6% pre-game — final MIL 5–LAD 1
- Tigers at OriolesBAL 56.6% pre-game — final BAL 7–DET 4
- Orioles at RaysTB 55.9% pre-game — final TB 5–BAL 3
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians at Tigers Mon, May 18 | DET 53.7% · CLE 46.3% | DET 2–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Orioles at Rays Mon, May 18 | TB 55.9% · BAL 44.1% | TB 16–BAL 6 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Mon, May 18 | MIA 55.0% · ATL 45.0% | MIA 12–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Reds at Phillies Mon, May 18 | PHI 54.6% · CIN 45.4% | PHI 5–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Mets at Nationals Mon, May 18 | WSH 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | WSH 7–NYM 16 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Yankees Mon, May 18 | NYY 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | NYY 7–TOR 6 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Royals Mon, May 18 | KC 55.3% · BOS 44.7% | KC 1–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cubs Mon, May 18 | CHC 53.2% · MIL 46.8% | CHC 3–MIL 9 | Miss |
| Astros at Twins Mon, May 18 | MIN 55.1% · HOU 44.9% | MIN 6–HOU 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rockies Tue, May 19 | COL 54.8% · TEX 45.2% | COL 7–TEX 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Angels Tue, May 19 | LAA 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | LAA 2–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Mariners Tue, May 19 | SEA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SEA 6–CWS 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Tue, May 19 | ARI 53.4% · SF 46.6% | ARI 12–SF 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Padres Tue, May 19 | SD 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | SD 1–LAD 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Tue, May 19 | MIA 55.0% · ATL 45.0% | MIA 4–ATL 8 | Miss |
| Reds at Phillies Tue, May 19 | PHI 54.6% · CIN 45.4% | PHI 1–CIN 4 | Miss |
| Orioles at Rays Tue, May 19 | TB 55.9% · BAL 44.1% | TB 4–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Guardians at Tigers Tue, May 19 | DET 53.7% · CLE 46.3% | DET 3–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Tue, May 19 | WSH 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | WSH 9–NYM 6 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Yankees Tue, May 19 | NYY 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | NYY 5–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Royals Tue, May 19 | KC 55.3% · BOS 44.7% | KC 1–BOS 7 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cubs Tue, May 19 | CHC 53.2% · MIL 46.8% | CHC 2–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Twins Tue, May 19 | MIN 55.1% · HOU 44.9% | MIN 1–HOU 2 | Miss |
| Pirates at Cardinals Tue, May 19 | STL 53.6% · PIT 46.4% | STL 9–PIT 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rockies Wed, May 20 | COL 54.8% · TEX 45.2% | COL 0–TEX 10 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Wed, May 20 | LAA 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | LAA 6–OAK 14 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Mariners Wed, May 20 | SEA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SEA 1–CWS 2 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Padres Wed, May 20 | SD 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | SD 4–LAD 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Wed, May 20 | ARI 53.4% · SF 46.6% | ARI 5–SF 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Phillies Wed, May 20 | PHI 54.6% · CIN 45.4% | PHI 4–CIN 9 | Miss |
| Orioles at Rays Wed, May 20 | TB 55.9% · BAL 44.1% | TB 5–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Twins Wed, May 20 | MIN 55.1% · HOU 44.9% | MIN 4–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Rockies Wed, May 20 | COL 54.8% · TEX 45.2% | COL 4–TEX 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Diamondbacks Wed, May 20 | ARI 53.4% · SF 46.6% | ARI 6–SF 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Mariners Wed, May 20 | SEA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SEA 5–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Wed, May 20 | MIA 55.0% · ATL 45.0% | MIA 1–ATL 9 | Miss |
| Guardians at Tigers Wed, May 20 | DET 53.7% · CLE 46.3% | DET 2–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Wed, May 20 | WSH 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | WSH 8–NYM 4 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Yankees Wed, May 20 | NYY 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | NYY 1–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Royals Wed, May 20 | KC 55.3% · BOS 44.7% | KC 3–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cubs Wed, May 20 | CHC 53.2% · MIL 46.8% | CHC 0–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Pirates at Cardinals Wed, May 20 | STL 53.6% · PIT 46.4% | STL 0–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Padres Thu, May 21 | SD 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | SD 0–LAD 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Thu, May 21 | LAA 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | LAA 5–OAK 6 | Miss |
| Guardians at Tigers Thu, May 21 | DET 53.7% · CLE 46.3% | DET 1–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Pirates at Cardinals Thu, May 21 | STL 53.6% · PIT 46.4% | STL 2–PIT 6 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Thu, May 21 | WSH 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | WSH 1–NYM 2 | Miss |
| Braves at Marlins Thu, May 21 | MIA 55.0% · ATL 45.0% | MIA 3–ATL 9 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Yankees Thu, May 21 | NYY 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | NYY 0–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Athletics at Angels Fri, May 22 | LAA 54.3% · OAK 45.7% | LAA 2–OAK 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Diamondbacks Fri, May 22 | ARI 53.9% · COL 46.1% | ARI 2–COL 1 | Hit |
| Astros at Cubs Fri, May 22 | CHC 53.1% · HOU 46.9% | CHC 2–HOU 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Phillies Fri, May 22 | PHI 55.6% · CLE 44.4% | PHI 0–CLE 1 | Miss |
| Rays at Yankees Fri, May 22 | NYY 53.1% · TB 46.9% | NYY 2–TB 4 | Miss |
| Pirates at Blue Jays Fri, May 22 | TOR 55.5% · PIT 44.5% | TOR 6–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Red Sox Fri, May 22 | BOS 52.1% · MIN 47.9% | BOS 6–MIN 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Marlins Fri, May 22 | MIA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | MIA 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Braves Fri, May 22 | ATL 52.4% · WSH 47.6% | ATL 5–WSH 4 | Hit |
| Tigers at Orioles Fri, May 22 | BAL 56.6% · DET 43.4% | BAL 7–DET 4 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Brewers Fri, May 22 | MIL 56.6% · LAD 43.4% | MIL 5–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Mariners at Royals Fri, May 22 | KC 55.0% · SEA 45.0% | KC 0–SEA 2 | Miss |
| Rangers at Angels Sat, May 23 | LAA 52.2% · TEX 47.8% | LAA 9–TEX 6 | Hit |
| Rockies at Diamondbacks Sat, May 23 | ARI 53.9% · COL 46.1% | ARI 2–COL 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Padres Sat, May 23 | SD 58.5% · OAK 41.5% | SD 7–OAK 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Giants Sat, May 23 | SF 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SF 4–CWS 9 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Reds Sat, May 23 | CIN 57.6% · STL 42.4% | CIN 1–STL 8 | Miss |
| Astros at Cubs Sat, May 23 | CHC 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CHC 0–HOU 3 | Miss |
| Pirates at Blue Jays Sat, May 23 | TOR 55.5% · PIT 44.5% | TOR 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Phillies Sat, May 23 | PHI 53.9% · CLE 46.1% | PHI 3–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Giants Sat, May 23 | SF 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SF 10–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Mariners at Royals Sat, May 23 | KC 55.0% · SEA 45.0% | KC 5–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Mets at Marlins Sat, May 23 | MIA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | MIA 4–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Braves Sat, May 23 | ATL 52.4% · WSH 47.6% | ATL 0–WSH 2 | Miss |
| Twins at Red Sox Sat, May 23 | BOS 53.8% · MIN 46.2% | BOS 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Brewers Sat, May 23 | MIL 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | MIL 3–LAD 11 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Reds Sat, May 23 | CIN 55.8% · STL 44.2% | CIN 7–STL 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Padres Sun, May 24 | SD 56.7% · OAK 43.3% | SD 2–OAK 0 | Hit |
| Rangers at Angels Sun, May 24 | LAA 53.9% · TEX 46.1% | LAA 5–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Rockies at Diamondbacks Sun, May 24 | ARI 53.9% · COL 46.1% | ARI 5–COL 4 | Hit |
| Pirates at Blue Jays Sun, May 24 | TOR 55.5% · PIT 44.5% | TOR 1–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Tigers at Orioles Sun, May 24 | BAL 54.8% · DET 45.2% | BAL 5–DET 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Phillies Sun, May 24 | PHI 53.9% · CLE 46.1% | PHI 1–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Rays at Yankees Sun, May 24 | NYY 54.9% · TB 45.1% | NYY 2–TB 0 | Hit |
| Twins at Red Sox Sun, May 24 | BOS 53.8% · MIN 46.2% | BOS 5–MIN 6 | Miss |
| Mets at Marlins Sun, May 24 | MIA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | MIA 4–NYM 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Brewers Sun, May 24 | MIL 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | MIL 1–LAD 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Royals Sun, May 24 | KC 55.0% · SEA 45.0% | KC 8–SEA 6 | Hit |
| Astros at Cubs Sun, May 24 | CHC 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CHC 5–HOU 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Giants Sun, May 24 | SF 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SF 8–CWS 5 | Hit |
| Nationals at Braves Sun, May 24 | ATL 52.4% · WSH 47.6% | ATL 1–WSH 2 | Miss |
| Rockies at Diamondbacks Sun, May 24 | ARI 53.9% · COL 46.1% | ARI 9–COL 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Padres Sun, May 24 | SD 56.7% · OAK 43.3% | SD 2–OAK 5 | Miss |
| Tigers at Orioles Sun, May 24 | BAL 54.8% · DET 45.2% | BAL 1–DET 4 | Miss |
| Rangers at Angels Sun, May 24 | LAA 53.9% · TEX 46.1% | LAA 2–TEX 1 | Hit |
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