Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays head-to-head
Tampa Bay Rays 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rays:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Rays ELO 1510 vs Orioles ELO 1475 (diff: +34)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TB 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
TB home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rays defeated the Orioles 4-1.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rays and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Rays (0 out) vs Orioles (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rays won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Orioles
Rays
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Other games on May 19, 2026
- 55%COL win probability
- 54%LAA win probability
- 55%SEA win probability
- 53%ARI win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Rays has a 56% win probability, while Orioles has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.