Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Diamondbacks:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Diamondbacks rest advantage (2 days rest) over Brewers (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ARI 54% (0)
- If the rest edge were neutral: ARI 56% (+2)
Win probability movement
ARI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Brewers defeated the Diamondbacks 7-4.
Our model predicted the Diamondbacks would win with 54% confidence, but the Brewers pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Diamondbacks and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Diamondbacks and was a contributing factor: Diamondbacks rest advantage (2 days rest) over Brewers (1 day rest)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Brewers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Rest DaysFavors Arizona Diamondbacks
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Milwaukee Brewers
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Diamondbacks
Brewers
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Brewers
Diamondbacks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Diamondbacks has a 54% win probability, while Brewers has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.