Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins head-to-head
Minnesota Twins 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Twins:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
MIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Guardians defeated the Twins 5-2.
Our model predicted the Twins would win with 55% confidence, but the Guardians pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Twins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Twins (0 out) vs Guardians (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Guardians won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Twins
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Guardians
Twins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Minnesota Twins
- Previous game55%MIN win probability
- Next game56%MIN win probability
Cleveland Guardians
- Previous game55%MIN win probability
- Next game54%MIA win probability
Other games on Jul 9, 2026
- 56%TEX win probability
- 57%SD win probability
- 55%LAD win probability
- 55%PIT win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Twins has a 55% win probability, while Guardians has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota.