MLB report card: week of 2026-07-06 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
52.0%
hit rate
0.249
Brier score
51 of 98 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Astros at NationalsWSH 57.4% pre-game — final WSH 3–HOU 6
- Diamondbacks at PadresSD 57.3% pre-game — final SD 1–ARI 3
- Diamondbacks at PadresSD 57.3% pre-game — final SD 0–ARI 8
- Phillies at RedsCIN 56.9% pre-game — final CIN 1–PHI 4
- Diamondbacks at DodgersLAD 56.6% pre-game — final LAD 3–ARI 9
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Braves at PiratesPIT 63.0% pre-game — final PIT 12–ATL 4
- Rockies at GiantsSF 61.3% pre-game — final SF 8–COL 2
- Phillies at TigersDET 60.7% pre-game — final DET 10–PHI 2
- Angels at RangersTEX 57.5% pre-game — final TEX 8–LAA 3
- Astros at NationalsWSH 57.4% pre-game — final WSH 8–HOU 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox at Angels Mon, Jul 6 | LAA 55.1% · BOS 44.9% | LAA 5–BOS 7 | Miss |
| Phillies at Royals Mon, Jul 6 | KC 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | KC 15–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Mon, Jul 6 | TB 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TB 1–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Nationals Mon, Jul 6 | WSH 57.4% · HOU 42.6% | WSH 12–HOU 11 | Hit |
| Mets at Braves Mon, Jul 6 | ATL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | ATL 6–NYM 7 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cardinals Mon, Jul 6 | STL 52.5% · MIL 47.5% | STL 3–MIL 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Tue, Jul 7 | SD 57.3% · ARI 42.7% | SD 0–ARI 8 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Giants Tue, Jul 7 | SF 54.4% · TOR 45.6% | SF 10–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Rockies at Dodgers Tue, Jul 7 | LAD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | LAD 8–COL 7 | Hit |
| Brewers at Cardinals Tue, Jul 7 | STL 52.5% · MIL 47.5% | STL 3–MIL 4 | Miss |
| Cubs at Orioles Tue, Jul 7 | BAL 54.3% · CHC 45.8% | BAL 2–CHC 5 | Miss |
| Mariners at Marlins Tue, Jul 7 | MIA 55.5% · SEA 44.5% | MIA 6–SEA 5 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Tue, Jul 7 | TB 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TB 6–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Pirates Tue, Jul 7 | PIT 63.0% · ATL 37.0% | PIT 12–ATL 4 | Hit |
| Athletics at Tigers Tue, Jul 7 | DET 54.4% · OAK 45.6% | DET 6–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Nationals Tue, Jul 7 | WSH 57.4% · HOU 42.6% | WSH 3–HOU 6 | Miss |
| Phillies at Reds Tue, Jul 7 | CIN 56.9% · PHI 43.1% | CIN 1–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Royals at Mets Tue, Jul 7 | NYM 48.8% · KC 51.2% | NYM 12–KC 16 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Chicago White Sox Tue, Jul 7 | CWS 56.6% · BOS 43.4% | CWS 1–BOS 8 | Miss |
| Guardians at Twins Tue, Jul 7 | MIN 54.5% · CLE 45.5% | MIN 3–CLE 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Cardinals Tue, Jul 7 | STL 52.5% · MIL 47.5% | STL 2–MIL 10 | Miss |
| Angels at Rangers Wed, Jul 8 | TEX 57.5% · LAA 42.5% | TEX 8–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Wed, Jul 8 | SD 57.3% · ARI 42.7% | SD 4–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Giants Wed, Jul 8 | SF 54.4% · TOR 45.6% | SF 3–TOR 9 | Miss |
| Rockies at Dodgers Wed, Jul 8 | LAD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | LAD 3–COL 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Giants Wed, Jul 8 | SF 54.4% · TOR 45.6% | SF 0–TOR 10 | Miss |
| Cubs at Orioles Wed, Jul 8 | BAL 54.3% · CHC 45.8% | BAL 7–CHC 9 | Miss |
| Braves at Pirates Wed, Jul 8 | PIT 55.4% · ATL 44.6% | PIT 0–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Tigers Wed, Jul 8 | DET 54.4% · OAK 45.6% | DET 6–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Wed, Jul 8 | TB 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TB 3–NYY 0 | Hit |
| Mariners at Marlins Wed, Jul 8 | MIA 55.5% · SEA 44.5% | MIA 2–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Astros at Nationals Wed, Jul 8 | WSH 57.4% · HOU 42.6% | WSH 8–HOU 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Reds Wed, Jul 8 | CIN 55.1% · PHI 44.9% | CIN 11–PHI 5 | Hit |
| Royals at Mets Wed, Jul 8 | NYM 54.9% · KC 45.1% | NYM 6–KC 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Twins Wed, Jul 8 | MIN 54.5% · CLE 45.5% | MIN 6–CLE 5 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Chicago White Sox Wed, Jul 8 | CWS 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | CWS 0–BOS 5 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cardinals Wed, Jul 8 | STL 52.5% · MIL 47.5% | STL 5–MIL 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Rangers Thu, Jul 9 | TEX 55.8% · LAA 44.2% | TEX 1–LAA 13 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Thu, Jul 9 | SD 57.3% · ARI 42.7% | SD 10–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Rockies at Dodgers Thu, Jul 9 | LAD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | LAD 4–COL 3 | Hit |
| Braves at Pirates Thu, Jul 9 | PIT 55.4% · ATL 44.6% | PIT 5–ATL 10 | Miss |
| Royals at Mets Thu, Jul 9 | NYM 54.9% · KC 45.1% | NYM 7–KC 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Thu, Jul 9 | TB 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TB 4–NYY 12 | Miss |
| Cubs at Orioles Thu, Jul 9 | BAL 54.3% · CHC 45.8% | BAL 3–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Twins Thu, Jul 9 | MIN 54.5% · CLE 45.5% | MIN 2–CLE 5 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Chicago White Sox Thu, Jul 9 | CWS 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | CWS 1–BOS 2 | Miss |
| Mariners at Marlins Thu, Jul 9 | MIA 55.5% · SEA 44.5% | MIA 8–SEA 4 | Hit |
| Athletics at Tigers Thu, Jul 9 | DET 54.4% · OAK 45.6% | DET 4–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Reds Thu, Jul 9 | CIN 55.1% · PHI 44.9% | CIN 0–PHI 1 | Miss |
| Brewers at Cardinals Thu, Jul 9 | STL 52.5% · MIL 47.5% | STL 4–MIL 8 | Miss |
| Angels at Rangers Fri, Jul 10 | TEX 55.8% · LAA 44.2% | TEX 7–LAA 6 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Fri, Jul 10 | SD 57.3% · ARI 42.7% | SD 1–ARI 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Giants Fri, Jul 10 | SF 61.3% · COL 38.7% | SF 8–COL 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Tigers Fri, Jul 10 | DET 60.7% · PHI 39.3% | DET 10–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Nationals Fri, Jul 10 | WSH 56.6% · NYY 43.4% | WSH 3–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Orioles Fri, Jul 10 | BAL 54.6% · KC 45.4% | BAL 5–KC 3 | Hit |
| Cubs at Reds Fri, Jul 10 | CIN 54.7% · CHC 45.3% | CIN 4–CHC 0 | Hit |
| Mariners at Rays Fri, Jul 10 | TB 55.9% · SEA 44.1% | TB 7–SEA 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Marlins Fri, Jul 10 | MIA 54.4% · CLE 45.6% | MIA 2–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Athletics at Chicago White Sox Fri, Jul 10 | CWS 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | CWS 14–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Mets Fri, Jul 10 | NYM 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | NYM 2–BOS 6 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Sat, Jul 11 | TEX 53.5% · HOU 46.5% | TEX 7–HOU 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Twins Sat, Jul 11 | MIN 55.7% · LAA 44.3% | MIN 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Braves at Cardinals Sat, Jul 11 | STL 54.1% · ATL 45.9% | STL 2–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Padres Sat, Jul 11 | SD 53.6% · TOR 46.4% | SD 3–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sat, Jul 11 | LAD 56.6% · ARI 43.4% | LAD 3–ARI 9 | Miss |
| Rockies at Giants Sat, Jul 11 | SF 55.4% · COL 44.6% | SF 3–COL 4 | Miss |
| Brewers at Pirates Sat, Jul 11 | PIT 53.8% · MIL 46.2% | PIT 7–MIL 6 | Hit |
| Athletics at Chicago White Sox Sat, Jul 11 | CWS 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | CWS 1–OAK 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Twins Sat, Jul 11 | MIN 55.7% · LAA 44.3% | MIN 5–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Rockies at Giants Sat, Jul 11 | SF 55.4% · COL 44.6% | SF 4–COL 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Nationals Sat, Jul 11 | WSH 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | WSH 2–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Mets Sat, Jul 11 | NYM 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | NYM 0–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Guardians at Marlins Sat, Jul 11 | MIA 54.4% · CLE 45.6% | MIA 1–CLE 4 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rays Sat, Jul 11 | TB 55.9% · SEA 44.1% | TB 6–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Pirates Sat, Jul 11 | PIT 53.8% · MIL 46.2% | PIT 3–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Tigers Sat, Jul 11 | DET 54.7% · PHI 45.3% | DET 2–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Sat, Jul 11 | TEX 55.2% · HOU 44.8% | TEX 3–HOU 9 | Miss |
| Royals at Orioles Sat, Jul 11 | BAL 54.6% · KC 45.4% | BAL 6–KC 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Reds Sat, Jul 11 | CIN 54.7% · CHC 45.3% | CIN 3–CHC 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Cardinals Sat, Jul 11 | STL 54.1% · ATL 45.9% | STL 4–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Padres Sun, Jul 12 | SD 55.4% · TOR 44.6% | SD 8–TOR 7 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sun, Jul 12 | LAD 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | LAD 2–ARI 9 | Miss |
| Brewers at Pirates Sun, Jul 12 | PIT 53.8% · MIL 46.2% | PIT 14–MIL 5 | Hit |
| Yankees at Nationals Sun, Jul 12 | WSH 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | WSH 3–NYY 5 | Miss |
| Royals at Orioles Sun, Jul 12 | BAL 54.6% · KC 45.4% | BAL 8–KC 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Tigers Sun, Jul 12 | DET 54.7% · PHI 45.3% | DET 0–PHI 5 | Miss |
| Cubs at Reds Sun, Jul 12 | CIN 54.7% · CHC 45.3% | CIN 4–CHC 8 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Mets Sun, Jul 12 | NYM 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | NYM 2–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rays Sun, Jul 12 | TB 55.9% · SEA 44.1% | TB 2–SEA 8 | Miss |
| Guardians at Marlins Sun, Jul 12 | MIA 54.4% · CLE 45.6% | MIA 2–CLE 5 | Miss |
| Athletics at Chicago White Sox Sun, Jul 12 | CWS 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | CWS 9–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Twins Sun, Jul 12 | MIN 55.7% · LAA 44.3% | MIN 4–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Braves at Cardinals Sun, Jul 12 | STL 54.1% · ATL 45.9% | STL 3–ATL 4 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Sun, Jul 12 | TEX 55.2% · HOU 44.8% | TEX 6–HOU 5 | Hit |
| Rockies at Giants Sun, Jul 12 | SF 55.4% · COL 44.6% | SF 3–COL 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Padres Sun, Jul 12 | SD 55.4% · TOR 44.6% | SD 5–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Dodgers Sun, Jul 12 | LAD 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | LAD 3–ARI 5 | Miss |
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