Kansas City Royals at New York Mets
Kansas City Royals 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Royals:
- Rest Days. Royals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Mets (back-to-back)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: KC 44% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: KC 54% (+3)
Win probability movement
NYM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Royals defeated the Mets 16-12.
Our model predicted the Royals would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Royals and was a major factor: Royals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Mets (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mets and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Mets (0 out) vs Royals (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Royals won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Kansas City Royals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Mets
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Royals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Mets (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Royals
Mets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mets has a 49% win probability, while Royals has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citi Field in Queens, New York.