Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox
Washington Nationals 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Nationals:
- Rest Days. Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Red Sox (back-to-back)
- ELO Rating. Red Sox ELO 1468 vs Nationals ELO 1576 (diff: -108)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: WSH 44% (−11)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 54% (−1)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Sox defeated the Nationals 6-3.
Our model predicted the Nationals would win with 55% confidence, but the Red Sox pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Nationals and was a major factor: Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Red Sox (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Red Sox and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Sox won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Washington Nationals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Red Sox
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Red Sox (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Nationals
No player data available
Red Sox
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Red Sox has a 45% win probability, while Nationals has a 55% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.