New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Mariners:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SEA 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
SEA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Yankees defeated the Mariners 5-3.
Our model predicted the Mariners would win with 55% confidence, but the Yankees won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Mariners and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Yankees won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Seattle Mariners
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Mariners
Yankees
Odds by Source
| Source | Mariners | Yankees | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 | +1.5 | 7 |
| FanDuel | +144 | -186 | +1.5 | 6.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Yankees
Mariners
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mariners has a 55% win probability, while Yankees has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington.