Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros head-to-head
Houston Astros 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Astros:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
HOU home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Orioles defeated the Astros 4-2.
Our model predicted the Astros would win with 55% confidence, but the Orioles pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Astros and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Orioles won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Astros
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Orioles
Astros
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Houston Astros
- Previous game55%HOU win probability
- Next game55%HOU win probability
Baltimore Orioles
- Previous game55%HOU win probability
- Next game55%HOU win probability
Other games on Jul 18, 2026
- 55%CHC win probability
- 55%HOU win probability
- 53%KC win probability
- 55%COL win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Astros has a 55% win probability, while Orioles has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas.