MLB report card: week of 2026-07-13 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
52.2%
hit rate
0.251
Brier score
24 of 46 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Pirates at GuardiansCLE 55.7% pre-game — final CLE 1–PIT 7
- Orioles at AstrosHOU 55.5% pre-game — final HOU 2–BAL 5
- Orioles at AstrosHOU 55.5% pre-game — final HOU 2–BAL 4
- Orioles at AstrosHOU 55.5% pre-game — final HOU 2–BAL 3
- Reds at RockiesCOL 55.3% pre-game — final COL 6–CIN 9
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Marlins at BrewersMIL 56.4% pre-game — final MIL 3–MIA 1
- Marlins at BrewersMIL 56.4% pre-game — final MIL 8–MIA 6
- Marlins at BrewersMIL 56.4% pre-game — final MIL 2–MIA 1
- Reds at RockiesCOL 55.3% pre-game — final COL 10–CIN 3
- Cardinals at DiamondbacksARI 54.9% pre-game — final ARI 8–STL 7
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets at Phillies Thu, Jul 16 | PHI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | PHI 1–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Fri, Jul 17 | BOS 53.6% · TB 46.4% | BOS 10–TB 0 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Yankees Fri, Jul 17 | NYY 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | NYY 1–LAD 2 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Fri, Jul 17 | BOS 53.6% · TB 46.4% | BOS 5–TB 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Braves Fri, Jul 17 | ATL 54.5% · TEX 45.5% | ATL 15–TEX 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays Fri, Jul 17 | TOR 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TOR 4–CWS 12 | Miss |
| Marlins at Brewers Fri, Jul 17 | MIL 56.4% · MIA 43.6% | MIL 2–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Cubs Sat, Jul 18 | CHC 54.6% · MIN 45.4% | CHC 2–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Orioles at Astros Sat, Jul 18 | HOU 55.5% · BAL 44.5% | HOU 2–BAL 3 | Miss |
| Padres at Royals Sat, Jul 18 | KC 52.7% · SD 47.3% | KC 7–SD 6 | Hit |
| Reds at Rockies Sat, Jul 18 | COL 55.3% · CIN 44.7% | COL 2–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Tigers at Angels Sat, Jul 18 | LAA 54.8% · DET 45.2% | LAA 1–DET 2 | Miss |
| Nationals at Athletics Sat, Jul 18 | OAK 52.3% · WSH 47.8% | OAK 4–WSH 23 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Diamondbacks Sat, Jul 18 | ARI 54.9% · STL 45.1% | ARI 4–STL 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Mariners Sat, Jul 18 | SEA 53.5% · SF 46.5% | SEA 0–SF 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Guardians Sat, Jul 18 | CLE 55.7% · PIT 44.3% | CLE 1–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Twins at Cubs Sat, Jul 18 | CHC 54.6% · MIN 45.4% | CHC 6–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Phillies Sat, Jul 18 | PHI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | PHI 6–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays Sat, Jul 18 | TOR 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TOR 1–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Reds at Rockies Sat, Jul 18 | COL 55.3% · CIN 44.7% | COL 10–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Orioles at Astros Sat, Jul 18 | HOU 55.5% · BAL 44.5% | HOU 2–BAL 4 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Sat, Jul 18 | BOS 53.6% · TB 46.4% | BOS 7–TB 6 | Hit |
| Rangers at Braves Sat, Jul 18 | ATL 54.5% · TEX 45.5% | ATL 6–TEX 7 | Miss |
| Padres at Royals Sat, Jul 18 | KC 52.7% · SD 47.3% | KC 6–SD 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Diamondbacks Sat, Jul 18 | ARI 54.9% · STL 45.1% | ARI 5–STL 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Brewers Sat, Jul 18 | MIL 56.4% · MIA 43.6% | MIL 8–MIA 6 | Hit |
| Pirates at Guardians Sat, Jul 18 | CLE 54.8% · PIT 45.2% | CLE 5–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Mariners Sun, Jul 19 | SEA 53.5% · SF 46.5% | SEA 4–SF 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Athletics Sun, Jul 19 | OAK 52.3% · WSH 47.8% | OAK 15–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Tigers at Angels Sun, Jul 19 | LAA 54.8% · DET 45.2% | LAA 0–DET 7 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays Sun, Jul 19 | TOR 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TOR 0–CWS 3 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Yankees Sun, Jul 19 | NYY 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | NYY 2–LAD 8 | Miss |
| Mets at Phillies Sun, Jul 19 | PHI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | PHI 1–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Sun, Jul 19 | BOS 53.6% · TB 46.4% | BOS 6–TB 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Braves Sun, Jul 19 | ATL 54.5% · TEX 45.5% | ATL 8–TEX 5 | Hit |
| Pirates at Guardians Sun, Jul 19 | CLE 54.8% · PIT 45.2% | CLE 1–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Marlins at Brewers Sun, Jul 19 | MIL 56.4% · MIA 43.6% | MIL 3–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Astros Sun, Jul 19 | HOU 55.5% · BAL 44.5% | HOU 2–BAL 5 | Miss |
| Padres at Royals Sun, Jul 19 | KC 52.7% · SD 47.3% | KC 2–SD 19 | Miss |
| Twins at Cubs Sun, Jul 19 | CHC 54.6% · MIN 45.4% | CHC 10–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Rockies Sun, Jul 19 | COL 55.3% · CIN 44.7% | COL 6–CIN 9 | Miss |
| Nationals at Athletics Sun, Jul 19 | OAK 52.3% · WSH 47.8% | OAK 2–WSH 5 | Miss |
| Tigers at Angels Sun, Jul 19 | LAA 54.8% · DET 45.2% | LAA 3–DET 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Diamondbacks Sun, Jul 19 | ARI 54.9% · STL 45.1% | ARI 8–STL 7 | Hit |
| Giants at Mariners Sun, Jul 19 | SEA 53.5% · SF 46.5% | SEA 6–SF 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Yankees Sun, Jul 19 | NYY 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | NYY 2–LAD 1 | Hit |
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.