Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Blue Jays:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Blue Jays ELO 1536 vs Astros ELO 1495 (diff: +41)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Astros defeated the Blue Jays 9-7.
Our model predicted the Blue Jays would win with 56% confidence, but the Astros pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Blue Jays and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar rest: Blue Jays (back-to-back) vs Astros (back-to-back)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Astros won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Astros
Blue Jays
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Blue Jays has a 56% win probability, while Astros has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario.