Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros
Houston Astros 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Astros:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
HOU home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Astros defeated the Rays 10-8.
Our model predicted the Astros would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Astros and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Astros ELO 1495 vs Rays ELO 1510 (diff: -15)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Astros won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Astros
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Astros
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Astros has a 54% win probability, while Rays has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas.