Miami Marlins at Athletics Athletics
Athletics vs Miami Marlins head-to-head
Athletics Athletics 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Athletics:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Oakland Athletics rest advantage (2 days rest) over Marlins (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OAK 54% (−2)
- If the rest edge were neutral: OAK 56% (0)
Win probability movement
OAK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Marlins defeated the Oakland Athletics 12-5.
Our model predicted the Oakland Athletics would win with 56% confidence, but the Marlins pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Oakland Athletics and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Oakland Athletics and was a contributing factor: Oakland Athletics rest advantage (2 days rest) over Marlins (1 day rest)
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Oakland Athletics (0 out) vs Marlins (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Marlins won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Athletics Athletics
- Rest DaysFavors Athletics Athletics
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Athletics
Marlins
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Marlins
Athletics
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Athletics has a 56% win probability, while Marlins has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, California.