Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians head-to-head
Cleveland Guardians 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Guardians:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Guardians ELO 1513 vs Red Sox ELO 1468 (diff: +45)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
CLE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Sox defeated the Guardians 9-1.
Our model predicted the Guardians would win with 56% confidence, but the Red Sox pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Guardians and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating favored the Guardians and was a contributing factor: Guardians ELO 1513 vs Red Sox ELO 1468 (diff: +45)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Sox won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Guardians
- ELO RatingFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.
Key Players
Red Sox
Guardians
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Cleveland Guardians
- Previous game58%CLE win probability
- Next game56%CLE win probability
Boston Red Sox
- Previous game58%CLE win probability
- Next game56%CLE win probability
Other games on May 30, 2026
- 54%TEX win probability
- 51%HOU win probability
- 53%COL win probability
- 55%OAK win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Guardians has a 56% win probability, while Red Sox has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.