Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians 58% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Guardians:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Guardians rest advantage (2 days rest) over Red Sox (1 day rest)
- ELO Rating. Guardians ELO 1513 vs Red Sox ELO 1468 (diff: +45)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 54% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CLE 56% (−2)
Win probability movement
CLE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Guardians defeated the Red Sox 4-3.
Our model predicted the Guardians would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Guardians and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Guardians and was a contributing factor: Guardians rest advantage (2 days rest) over Red Sox (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Guardians won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Rest DaysFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Red Sox
Guardians
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Guardians has a 58% win probability, while Red Sox has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.