MLB report card: week of 2026-05-25 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
54.3%
hit rate
0.247
Brier score
51 of 94 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Phillies at PadresSD 57.1% pre-game — final SD 0–PHI 3
- Phillies at PadresSD 57.1% pre-game — final SD 3–PHI 4
- Phillies at PadresSD 57.1% pre-game — final SD 0–PHI 3
- Angels at TigersDET 56.6% pre-game — final DET 6–LAA 10
- Diamondbacks at GiantsSF 56.4% pre-game — final SF 2–ARI 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Cubs at PiratesPIT 61.4% pre-game — final PIT 2–CHC 1
- Red Sox at GuardiansCLE 58.0% pre-game — final CLE 4–BOS 3
- Angels at RaysTB 57.6% pre-game — final TB 8–LAA 5
- Cardinals at BrewersMIL 57.2% pre-game — final MIL 2–STL 1
- Cardinals at BrewersMIL 57.2% pre-game — final MIL 6–STL 0
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays at Orioles Mon, May 25 | BAL 47.7% · TB 52.3% | BAL 9–TB 7 | Miss |
| Cubs at Pirates Mon, May 25 | PIT 61.4% · CHC 38.6% | PIT 2–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Brewers Mon, May 25 | MIL 57.2% · STL 42.8% | MIL 5–STL 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Chicago White Sox Mon, May 25 | CWS 48.8% · MIN 51.2% | CWS 3–MIN 1 | Miss |
| Yankees at Royals Mon, May 25 | KC 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | KC 3–NYY 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Mets Mon, May 25 | NYM 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | NYM 2–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Giants Mon, May 25 | SF 56.4% · ARI 43.6% | SF 2–ARI 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Guardians Mon, May 25 | CLE 52.9% · WSH 47.1% | CLE 2–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Phillies at Padres Mon, May 25 | SD 57.1% · PHI 42.9% | SD 0–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Mon, May 25 | TEX 49.1% · HOU 50.9% | TEX 0–HOU 9 | Hit |
| Marlins at Blue Jays Mon, May 25 | TOR 56.0% · MIA 44.0% | TOR 2–MIA 8 | Miss |
| Rockies at Dodgers Tue, May 26 | LAD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | LAD 5–COL 3 | Hit |
| Mariners at Athletics Tue, May 26 | OAK 55.3% · SEA 44.7% | OAK 2–SEA 9 | Miss |
| Nationals at Guardians Tue, May 26 | CLE 52.9% · WSH 47.1% | CLE 3–WSH 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Orioles Tue, May 26 | BAL 53.8% · TB 46.2% | BAL 6–TB 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Tigers Tue, May 26 | DET 56.6% · LAA 43.4% | DET 6–LAA 10 | Miss |
| Cubs at Pirates Tue, May 26 | PIT 55.5% · CHC 44.5% | PIT 12–CHC 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Red Sox Tue, May 26 | BOS 54.0% · ATL 46.0% | BOS 6–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Marlins at Blue Jays Tue, May 26 | TOR 56.0% · MIA 44.0% | TOR 8–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Mets Tue, May 26 | NYM 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | NYM 2–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Brewers Tue, May 26 | MIL 57.2% · STL 42.8% | MIL 6–STL 0 | Hit |
| Yankees at Royals Tue, May 26 | KC 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | KC 1–NYY 15 | Miss |
| Twins at Chicago White Sox Tue, May 26 | CWS 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | CWS 3–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Wed, May 27 | TEX 55.2% · HOU 44.8% | TEX 10–HOU 7 | Hit |
| Mariners at Athletics Wed, May 27 | OAK 55.3% · SEA 44.7% | OAK 1–SEA 4 | Miss |
| Phillies at Padres Wed, May 27 | SD 57.1% · PHI 42.9% | SD 3–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Giants Wed, May 27 | SF 56.4% · ARI 43.6% | SF 5–ARI 7 | Miss |
| Rockies at Dodgers Wed, May 27 | LAD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | LAD 15–COL 6 | Hit |
| Marlins at Blue Jays Wed, May 27 | TOR 56.0% · MIA 44.0% | TOR 2–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Guardians Wed, May 27 | CLE 52.9% · WSH 47.1% | CLE 3–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Brewers Wed, May 27 | MIL 57.2% · STL 42.8% | MIL 2–STL 1 | Hit |
| Mariners at Athletics Wed, May 27 | OAK 55.3% · SEA 44.7% | OAK 1–SEA 9 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Giants Wed, May 27 | SF 56.4% · ARI 43.6% | SF 2–ARI 3 | Miss |
| Phillies at Padres Wed, May 27 | SD 57.1% · PHI 42.9% | SD 0–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Rays at Orioles Wed, May 27 | BAL 53.8% · TB 46.2% | BAL 11–TB 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Pirates Wed, May 27 | PIT 55.5% · CHC 44.5% | PIT 4–CHC 10 | Miss |
| Angels at Tigers Wed, May 27 | DET 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | DET 4–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Red Sox Wed, May 27 | BOS 54.0% · ATL 46.0% | BOS 8–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Reds at Mets Wed, May 27 | NYM 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | NYM 4–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Royals Wed, May 27 | KC 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | KC 0–NYY 7 | Miss |
| Twins at Chicago White Sox Wed, May 27 | CWS 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | CWS 15–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Astros at Rangers Thu, May 28 | TEX 55.2% · HOU 44.8% | TEX 3–HOU 4 | Miss |
| Rockies at Dodgers Thu, May 28 | LAD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | LAD 4–COL 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Tigers Thu, May 28 | DET 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | DET 1–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Twins at Chicago White Sox Thu, May 28 | CWS 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | CWS 6–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Braves at Red Sox Thu, May 28 | BOS 54.0% · ATL 46.0% | BOS 2–ATL 10 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Thu, May 28 | BAL 53.0% · TOR 47.0% | BAL 1–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Cubs at Pirates Thu, May 28 | PIT 55.5% · CHC 44.5% | PIT 2–CHC 7 | Miss |
| Astros at Rangers Fri, May 29 | TEX 55.2% · HOU 44.8% | TEX 1–HOU 5 | Miss |
| Braves at Reds Fri, May 29 | CIN 54.7% · ATL 45.3% | CIN 3–ATL 8 | Miss |
| Twins at Pirates Fri, May 29 | PIT 55.2% · MIN 44.8% | PIT 6–MIN 5 | Hit |
| Padres at Nationals Fri, May 29 | WSH 55.6% · SD 44.4% | WSH 5–SD 7 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Fri, May 29 | BAL 53.0% · TOR 47.0% | BAL 5–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Guardians Fri, May 29 | CLE 58.0% · BOS 42.0% | CLE 4–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Angels at Rays Fri, May 29 | TB 57.6% · LAA 42.4% | TB 8–LAA 5 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Fri, May 29 | NYM 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYM 9–MIA 7 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Fri, May 29 | STL 55.9% · CHC 44.1% | STL 6–CHC 5 | Hit |
| Tigers at Chicago White Sox Fri, May 29 | CWS 54.9% · DET 45.1% | CWS 4–DET 3 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Sat, May 30 | TEX 53.8% · KC 46.2% | TEX 9–KC 1 | Hit |
| Brewers at Astros Sat, May 30 | HOU 51.4% · MIL 48.6% | HOU 4–MIL 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Rockies Sat, May 30 | COL 52.6% · SF 47.4% | COL 8–SF 6 | Hit |
| Yankees at Athletics Sat, May 30 | OAK 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | OAK 2–NYY 8 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Mariners Sat, May 30 | SEA 55.0% · ARI 45.0% | SEA 7–ARI 6 | Hit |
| Phillies at Dodgers Sat, May 30 | LAD 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | LAD 4–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Chicago White Sox Sat, May 30 | CWS 54.9% · DET 45.1% | CWS 7–DET 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Pirates Sat, May 30 | PIT 55.2% · MIN 44.8% | PIT 10–MIN 9 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Sat, May 30 | BAL 53.0% · TOR 47.0% | BAL 6–TOR 5 | Hit |
| Padres at Nationals Sat, May 30 | WSH 55.6% · SD 44.4% | WSH 9–SD 4 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Sat, May 30 | TEX 55.5% · KC 44.5% | TEX 7–KC 6 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Sat, May 30 | NYM 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYM 6–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Rays Sat, May 30 | TB 55.9% · LAA 44.1% | TB 3–LAA 14 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Guardians Sat, May 30 | CLE 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | CLE 1–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Brewers at Astros Sat, May 30 | HOU 53.2% · MIL 46.8% | HOU 9–MIL 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Sat, May 30 | STL 54.2% · CHC 45.8% | STL 1–CHC 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Reds Sat, May 30 | CIN 54.7% · ATL 45.3% | CIN 2–ATL 5 | Miss |
| Giants at Rockies Sun, May 31 | COL 54.3% · SF 45.7% | COL 8–SF 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Athletics Sun, May 31 | OAK 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | OAK 6–NYY 4 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Mariners Sun, May 31 | SEA 55.0% · ARI 45.0% | SEA 5–ARI 1 | Hit |
| Phillies at Dodgers Sun, May 31 | LAD 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | LAD 3–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Sun, May 31 | BAL 53.0% · TOR 47.0% | BAL 9–TOR 5 | Hit |
| Twins at Pirates Sun, May 31 | PIT 55.2% · MIN 44.8% | PIT 9–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Padres at Nationals Sun, May 31 | WSH 55.6% · SD 44.4% | WSH 4–SD 2 | Hit |
| Marlins at Mets Sun, May 31 | NYM 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | NYM 10–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Reds Sun, May 31 | CIN 54.7% · ATL 45.3% | CIN 6–ATL 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Rays Sun, May 31 | TB 55.9% · LAA 44.1% | TB 5–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Guardians Sun, May 31 | CLE 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | CLE 4–BOS 9 | Miss |
| Brewers at Astros Sun, May 31 | HOU 53.2% · MIL 46.8% | HOU 0–MIL 2 | Miss |
| Tigers at Chicago White Sox Sun, May 31 | CWS 54.9% · DET 45.1% | CWS 2–DET 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Sun, May 31 | TEX 55.5% · KC 44.5% | TEX 6–KC 3 | Hit |
| Giants at Rockies Sun, May 31 | COL 54.3% · SF 45.7% | COL 6–SF 19 | Miss |
| Yankees at Athletics Sun, May 31 | OAK 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | OAK 8–NYY 13 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Mariners Sun, May 31 | SEA 55.0% · ARI 45.0% | SEA 3–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Phillies at Dodgers Sun, May 31 | LAD 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | LAD 9–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Cardinals Sun, May 31 | STL 54.2% · CHC 45.8% | STL 5–CHC 1 | Hit |
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.