Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Houston Astros 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Astros:
- Rest Days. Astros rest advantage (1 day rest) over Rangers (back-to-back)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: HOU 44% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 54% (+3)
Win probability movement
TEX home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Astros defeated the Rangers 9-0.
Our model predicted the Astros would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Astros and was a major factor: Astros rest advantage (1 day rest) over Rangers (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rangers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Astros won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Houston Astros
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Texas Rangers
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Astros rest advantage (1 day rest) over Rangers (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Astros
Rangers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rangers has a 49% win probability, while Astros has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.