Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals head-to-head
St. Louis Cardinals 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Cardinals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Cardinals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Cubs (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: STL 54% (−2)
- If the rest edge were neutral: STL 56% (0)
Win probability movement
STL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cardinals defeated the Cubs 6-5.
Our model predicted the Cardinals would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cardinals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Cardinals and was a contributing factor: Cardinals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Cubs (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cardinals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Rest DaysFavors St. Louis Cardinals
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Cubs
Cardinals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Previous game57%MIL win probability
- Next game54%STL win probability
Chicago Cubs
- Previous game55%PIT win probability
- Next game54%STL win probability
Other games on May 29, 2026
- 55%TEX win probability
- 55%CIN win probability
- 55%PIT win probability
- 56%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Cardinals has a 56% win probability, while Cubs has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri.