Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians 75% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Guardians:
- Injuries. Guardians healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Royals (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency. Guardians pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Royals (5.0 RA/G)
- ELO Rating. Royals ELO 1405 vs Guardians ELO 1512 (diff: -107)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Royals defeated the Guardians 3-2.
Our model predicted the Guardians would win with 75% confidence, but the Royals pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Guardians and was a major factor: Guardians healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Royals (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Guardians and was a notable factor: Guardians pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Royals (5.0 RA/G)
- ELO Rating favored the Guardians and was a contributing factor: Royals ELO 1405 vs Guardians ELO 1512 (diff: -107)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Royals have 13 player(s) ruled out, while the Guardians have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Royals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Guardians
- ELO RatingFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Kansas City Royals
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Guardians
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Royals
Guardians
Odds by Sportsbook
| Source | Royals | Guardians | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | - | - | +4.5 | 14.5 |
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 | +1.5 | 8.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Guardians healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Royals (13 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Royals
Guardians
Key Players
Guardians
Royals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Royals has a 25% win probability, while Guardians has a 75% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.