Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 65% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nationals:
- Rest Days. Nationals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Mariners (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Nationals ELO 1576 vs Mariners ELO 1478 (diff: +98)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: WSH 56% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 60% (−5)
Win probability movement
WSH home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mariners defeated the Nationals 10-2.
Our model predicted the Nationals would win with 65% confidence, but the Mariners pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Nationals and was a major factor: Nationals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Mariners (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nationals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mariners won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Washington Nationals
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Nationals
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Nationals
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Nationals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Mariners (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mariners
Nationals
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nationals has a 65% win probability, while Mariners has a 35% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia.