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Chicago Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

MLBpostseason • 2026-2027 Season
Scheduled
Guardians logo
Guardians
Cleveland
0
vs
Chicago White Sox logo
Chicago White Sox
Chicago
0
CLE 64%36% CWS
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Cleveland Guardians 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Guardians:

  • Injuries. Guardians healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Chicago White Sox 8 out, 0 doubtful
  • Defensive Efficiency. Guardians pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Chicago White Sox (4.4 RA/G)
  • Home Field Advantage. Guardians are 38-35 at home this season; Chicago White Sox are 33-43 on the road

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VenueProgressive Field
Cleveland, Ohio

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Chicago White Sox (away)
Guardians (home)
36%
Win probability
64%
0
High-impact factors
1
8
Players ruled out
3

Game Preview

Chicago White Sox at Guardians

The Chicago White Sox visit the Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio in 2026-2027 MLB postseason play.

Our model gives the Guardians a 64% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Chicago White Sox will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Injuries favors the Guardians (high): Guardians healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Chicago White Sox 8 out, 0 doubtful
  • Offensive Efficiency favors the Chicago White Sox (medium): Chicago White Sox offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Guardians (4.2 R/G)
  • Defensive Efficiency favors the Guardians (low): Guardians pitching/defense (4.1 RA/G) better than Chicago White Sox (4.4 RA/G)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Guardians have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Chicago White Sox have 8.
Guardians64%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Injuries
Favors CLE

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Cleveland Guardians
  • Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Chicago White Sox
  • Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Guardians
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Guardians
  • ELO RatingFavors Chicago Chicago White Sox
  • Recent FormNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

CWS
CLE
Injuries
Offensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Recent Form
Favours CWS|Favours CLE

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Guardians

Our Model64%

Chicago White Sox

Our Model36%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Guardians healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Chicago White Sox 8 out, 0 doubtful

Guardians

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 8:45:00 AM

Guardians

Rhys Hoskins1B(Back)
OUT
Colin HoldermanRP(Wrist)
OUT
Andrew WaltersRP(Elbow)
OUT

Chicago White Sox

Joey BartC(Hand)
OUT
Tanner MurrayLF(Shoulder)
OUT
Brooks BaldwinLF(Elbow)
OUT
Mike VasilRP(Elbow)
OUT
Prelander BerroaRP(Elbow)
OUT
Jordan LeasureRP(Forearm)
OUT
Luis CastilloSP(Shoulder)
OUT
Ky BushSP(Elbow)
OUT

Key Players

Chicago White Sox

Noah SchultzSP
Sean BurkeSP
Erick FeddeSP
Anthony KaySP
Luis CastilloSPOUT
0.0% win prob impact

Guardians

Slade CecconiSP
Gavin WilliamsSP
Tanner BibeeSP
Logan AllenSP
Will DionSP

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Deep Dive

MLB Weather Impact

How wind and temperature affect baseball outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Guardians has a 64% win probability, while Chicago White Sox has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

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