New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 66% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rays:
- Injuries. Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Rays are 50-21 at home this season; Yankees are 41-36 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Yankees at Rays
The Yankees visit the Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida in 2026-2027 MLB postseason play.
Our model gives the Rays a 66% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Yankees will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Injuries favors the Rays (high): Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Yankees (low): Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Rays (4.0 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Rays (medium): Rays are 50-21 at home this season; Yankees are 41-36 on the road
- The Yankees are without 4 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Rays
Yankees
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Yankees 4 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Rays
No injuries reported
Yankees
Key Players
Yankees
Rays
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rays has a 66% win probability, while Yankees has a 34% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.