MLB report card: week of 2026-10-05 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
72.7%
hit rate
0.232
Brier score
8 of 11 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Braves at DodgersLAD 76.2% pre-game — final LAD 2–ATL 3
- Chicago White Sox at GuardiansCLE 64.4% pre-game — final CLE 3–CWS 4
- Brewers at PadresSD 51.7% pre-game — final SD 1–MIL 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Dodgers at BravesLAD 67.9% pre-game — final ATL 1–LAD 4
- Dodgers at BravesLAD 67.7% pre-game — final ATL 1–LAD 3
- Yankees at RaysTB 65.7% pre-game — final TB 5–NYY 2
- Chicago White Sox at GuardiansCLE 64.5% pre-game — final CLE 2–CWS 0
- Rays at YankeesTB 56.0% pre-game — final NYY 3–TB 4
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves at Dodgers Mon, Oct 5 | LAD 76.2% · ATL 23.8% | LAD 2–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Mon, Oct 5 | CLE 64.4% · CWS 35.6% | CLE 3–CWS 4 | Miss |
| Yankees at Rays Tue, Oct 6 | TB 65.7% · NYY 34.3% | TB 5–NYY 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Braves Tue, Oct 6 | ATL 32.3% · LAD 67.7% | ATL 1–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Brewers at Padres Wed, Oct 7 | SD 51.2% · MIL 48.8% | SD 4–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Wed, Oct 7 | CWS 45.3% · CLE 54.7% | CWS 3–CLE 9 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Braves Wed, Oct 7 | ATL 32.1% · LAD 67.9% | ATL 1–LAD 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Yankees Thu, Oct 8 | NYY 44.0% · TB 56.0% | NYY 3–TB 4 | Hit |
| Brewers at Padres Thu, Oct 8 | SD 51.7% · MIL 48.3% | SD 1–MIL 3 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Fri, Oct 9 | CWS 44.7% · CLE 55.3% | CWS 5–CLE 9 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Guardians Sun, Oct 11 | CLE 64.5% · CWS 35.5% | CLE 2–CWS 0 | Hit |
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.